What Does 2004 Beckon

We, students of security, welcome 2004 with trepidation at heart.

The US-led intervention in Iraq was easily the most distinctive event of the year 2003. The 'war' has ended and the 'ring leader' Saddam Hussein has been captured. But has the global war on terrorism (GWOT) been won? Many believe, as we have seen in the course of this Newsletter, it is not so. Repercussions inside Iraq are still disturbing. Reverberations have been felt in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Al Qaeda's linkage with local terrorists seems to be causing havoc in parts of South East Asia. Even with Osama bin Laden in hiding, there are frequent reports of Al Qaeda threatening to avenge, especially on the United States. It is believed to have adjusted its targeting - attacking westerners in non-western countries. The Taliban is regrouping. The Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf narrowly escaped a second bid on his life. The United States remains apprehensive of an aerial attack and possible indulgence in bio-terrorism. With terrorist threats continuing, counter-measures are being worked out. Signs of the last post are, however, not in view. On the other hand, it would seem we have "miles to go before we could sleep".

The year 2003 witnessed consolidation of the European Union and some tension between it and the US. The projected 'moon project' was duly launched by China. North Korea threatened to develop nukes. The United States and Russia were reviewing or reshaping their nuclear strategy. The UN Secretary General expressed virtual disgust at the UN being ignored and the failure of those concerned to carry out long-pending reforms, such as, expansion of the Security Council.

The economic downswing has, however, shown signs of reversal.

As if the man-made miseries were not enough, the nature showed its fury with the devastating earthquake (December 27, 2003) in Iran claiming over 50,000 lives in one stroke.

There we stand at the end of 2003.

So, what does 2004 beckon to us? Will the proposed road map for peace between Israel and Palestine take shape? Will the Indian overtures for peace and Pakistan's response show the way to international forces in 2004? Will the
UN retain its relevance?

IISSM requests honourable viewers and readers of the Newsletter to ponder and share their views and assessments for the benefit of all concerned. We shall feel obliged.

D.C. Nath, IPS (Retd.)
Executive President & CEO,
International Institute of Security and Safety Management,
New Delhi, INDIA.