Introspection and Prognosis

Occasions like the beginning of a new year are good times for indulging in introspection as also for perspective planning. Confining ourselves to what has been covered in this Newsletter, the following emerge:

• The ‘war on terrorism’ has spread, Countries like Africa, Egypt, Turkey, Spain, France, Germany and UK and of course, India, are clearly under the terrorist scanner. Britain has been declared as the ‘Kashmir on Thames’. The Australian government has also sounded alert on possible attacks from terrorists in Indonesia.


• The resurgence of the Taliban (no longer figuring in the US list of terrorist organizations) in Afghanistan was effectively acknowledged when the Karzai government invited the Taliban for negotiation. The understanding earlier reached by the Pakistan government with the Taliban is relevant in this context.


• While the Maoists and the Nepali government reached an accord and a new secular democratic government is taking shape in place of the earlier Hindu Kingdom in Nepal, the peace talks in Srilanka have failed, leading to fresh hostility between the Srilankan government and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). The European Union has meanwhile banned LTTE.


• Iraq has fast deteriorated into serious sectarian violence. With no clear ‘exit strategy’ for the US armed forces from Iraq in view, a tripartite division of Iraq is being foretold.


• The Hamas and Fatah in Palestine seem to be going well and some understaning between Israel and the Hamas also seems to be developing.


• Al Qaeda, which has now its Hqrs in Waziristan in Pakistan, has called upon nuclear scientists to join their ranks. It has come to notice for attempting to penetrate the MI5 in the UK and has reportedly set up a TV channel of its own. Israel has alleged Al Qaeda footprints in its territory and there were reports of Al Qaeda’s presence in J&K area of India. Al Qaeda has also been reportedly training a bunch of ‘Westeners’ in Pakistan for launching attacks in their respective homelands.


• Both the left-extremists in different parts of India and the ULFA in the state of Assam have posed serious challenges to the law and order authority.


• It has become clear that ULFA has been receiving sustenance and shelter from and in Bangladesh, now characterised to be in the process of Talibanistion with Al Qaeda support.

• As against October 9, 2006, nuclear test by North Korea, there was September 8, 2006, adoption of global counterterrorism strategy by the UN – a first-time venture of this type at the highest international level.


• The ETA in Spain has called off its decades-long fight.


• Muslim clerics and scholars have issued ‘fatwas’ decreeing that the (Muslim) terrorists should refrain from quoting Koranic verses justifying their acts of violence.


• Earlier leaders of more than 50 Muslim countries in ‘The Third Extraordinary Session of the Islamic Summit Conference,’ had strongly criticized “reckless fatwas by people who were not qualified to speak in the name of Islam” and stressed the need “to establish moderate Islamic discourses.”


• Women preachers in Morocco were reported to be promoting a more tolerant version of Islam and in Saudi Arabia, the government pressed into service some militant clerics to win over the youth from the path of fundamentalism and terrorism.


• On October 21, 2006, the Shia and Sunni sects in Iraq signed an accord in the holy city of Mecca, asserting mutual accommodation.


• Syria and Iraq have singed a pact to fight terrorism together.


• For the first time, a Pope (Benedict XVI) prayed along with Muslim cleric in a Mosque (Istanbul, Turkey) – a development carrying a significant message.

Sitting on judgement is not our cup of tea. Neither do we qualify for that nor do we intend venturing into such a difficult task. And given the variables in geopolitical situaiton, it will be risky, if not tricky, to attempt any prognosis. But we have the freedom to think and express what we think. Taking things at their face value, a modest appreciation would be that in 2006, the calming forces were comparatively weaker than those having the potential for bringing in more miseries for common citizens thirsting for peace and tranquility. If some parochial view is permitted, those in charge of the internal security situation in India would be extremely hard-pressed, if not harassed, in arresting the rising graph of violence – be it caused by Muslim terrorists, again of different hues and colours or by left extremists or by other separatists or insurgent groups in the north-eastern states, acknowledgedly aided and abated by forces from across the border.

And, private security agencies in India, encouraged by the Union Home Minister, may perhaps be called upon to play a more positive and effective role so as to support the law enforcement machinery of the government – both Central and State. It is an opportunity as well as responsibility that the big operators will have to avail of and cannot avoid. IISSM pledges to be with them.

D. C. Nath, IPS (Retd.)
Former Special Director, IB (MHA), Govt. of India,
Executive President & CEO,
International Institute of Security and Safety Management,
New Delhi, India.