IISSM engine chugs on. The two-year long journey has been rather
interesting. The path, however, has not often been very even or
smooth. But, encouragement and good wishes have kept us moving.
A smug satisfaction creeps in - perhaps we are serving our
readers, particularly those in the security profession, to an
extent. We, however, long for days when the IISSM Newsletter
will indeed be a forum for exchange of views and interaction
among both professionals and outsiders. In other words, our aim
is, one can say, to have a quid pro quo deal. IISSM will bring
and place before the readers whatever it can gather, and will in
return expect to hear voices from among the readers, supporting
or criticising, and at the same time feeding it from time to
time. IISSM stands committed to acknowledging such
contributions. We fondly believe such an exchange will promote
or advance the cause of professionalism in security industry.
That will provide the password for recognition. We humbly assess
things are moving in the right direction but the engine can do
with some more steam or frequent refuelling. So, we live with
hope.
Al Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive
Cairo - Al-Qaeda is still dangerous and is adept at changing its
shape. The world's security specialists are almost unanimously
gloomy. They say it is no longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda
will hit western city again. Many expect it to explode a "dirty
bomb". It is widely agreed that the war in Iraq is likely to
expand al-Qaeda's pool of recruits and make it harder for
America to win its war on terror. The International Institute
for Strategic Studies in London says that the only way to
"depress recruitment and motivation" for al-Qaeda would be to
find "currently elusive" solutions to messes, such as, Iraq and
Palestine. Terrorism experts no longer see al-Qaeda, the global
jihad's "base" organization founded by bin Laden, as a sort of
"terrorism central" but more like an ideological franchise.
George Tenet, who headed the CIA, testified recently that
militant jihadi groups operated in no fewer than 68 countries
(up from 40 in 2001). Deadly attacks in such disparate places as
Turkey, Morocco, Spain, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have all been
traced to local cells. Several prominent terrorist groups appear
to be linked to al-Qaeda by little more than inspiration and the
internet. For reasons of logistics and security, bin Laden now
appears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational
control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian,
who is believed to have adopted a two-pronged offensive. Some
surviving networks in western countries may be lying low,
planning for large strikes to cause maximum casualties and
political impact, on the model of the Madrid bombings. Diaa
Rashwan, an Egyptian expert on Islamist militancy, notes that
recent messages from al-Qaeda leaders emphasize the "near enemy"
- the western-allied governments of such countries as Pakistan
and Saudi Arabia - rather than the "far enemy", the infidel
powers such as America or Britain. Judging from the "chatter" on
militant Islamist websites, the passion that fuels Islamist
terror is growing. The main reason for this is the perception,
widespread in the Muslim world, that America's wars in
Afghanistan and Iraq, along with its support for Israel, are
tantamount to a war on Islam. In a recent taped message, bin
Laden said it was a good idea to maintain a state of conflict,
to mobilize Muslim anger. A communiqué from a Saudi jihadi group
expresses the hope that George Bush will be re-elected because
his "haste to use force, his lack of wisdom and religious
fanaticism have roused the Islamic nation."
The Economist - June 5, 2004.
(IISSM feels privileged to share this assessment with the
readers)
D. C. Nath, IPS (Retd.)
Former Special Director, IB (MHA), Govt. of India
Editor-cum-Executive President & CEO
International Institute of Security and Safety Management
New Delhi, India.
