A Catastrophe Waiting to Happen ? London Under Siege from Water
By Mr. Toby Clark, Director, Safety Solutions (UK) Limited, UK
This article explores the ‘hidden risks’ to London, namely from flooding. How well prepared is London ? What could be the impact on properties and commerce? Are the Emergency Plans robust enough to cope with the evacuation of communities? Or is the risk exaggerated? Are they lessons that arise for Indian cities exposed to flood risks?
‘The Lord said a fire not a flood next time’ so the song says. However, unless we get nuked the evidence is all pointing firmly in the opposite direction at least from the Southeast of England perspective. London is under siege from water.
From below. As a result of reduced abstraction, the artesian basin under London has been refilling since 1970 from a previous equilibrium level of about minus 80m, causing the water table to rise dramatically (about 40m in 30 years) until it is becoming an embarrassment. Many high rise buildings and underground structures were not designed with this as a consideration so that a reverse of the ‘ground heave’ effect following the drought year 1976 could bring about instability. Sloping tunnels such as escalators are a particular problem, apparently. London Underground are pumping 30,000m3 a day of which 4500m3 is from Victoria. However, there is an action plan, ‘the GARDIT Strategy’ which should stabilise the levels soon by phased increase in extraction rates. Alas most of this water is not potable.
From the sea. The Thames flood barrier was constructed in the mid seventies in anticipation of ever rising tide levels driven basically by isostatic rebound effects associated with the Caledonian Orogeny. The Southeast is sinking at about 30cm per century and London has suffered regular flood events from about the 13th Century (the last being 50 years ago). The flood barrier was never intended to be a permanent solution, it is inexorably nearing the end of its design life and it is being used ever more frequently as levels are rising. What the barrier keeps out of London piles up in the Thames Estuary and threatens bankside locations downstream - high, obtrusive and expensive sea walls hold it in check.
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From global warming - whether from anthropogenic sources or otherwise. It is estimated to raise sea levels anywhere from 0.08m to 0.88m over the next century or so. Most analysts would tend to use a figure of about 0.4m. Given that a secondary consequence is more violent weather (e.g. the hurricanes in 1986?), the scenario becomes that of very low barometric pressure at the centre of a storm causing mean sea level to rise another metre - this is the ‘saucer effect’ where higher pressures outside the storm’s isobars hump up the sea into a dome shape. Danger comes if this coincides with a high spring tide and it is likely to be accompanied by torrential rain on the hills inland, increasing river flow. A massive flood as precursor to an increasingly frequent series of them would make life very unpleasant for the inhabitants of, for example, Hull, King’s Lynn, Thamesmead, Ashford, Romney Marsh etc. as well as London itself. Dungeness nuclear power station might find itself all at sea as the Saxon Shoreline re-establishes itself!
On a lower probability it has been predicted that the Ross Ice Shelf could break off and fall into the Arctic Ocean, raising sea levels by something like 5m. It is an interesting exercise to redraw the English coastline against such an event. Venice would have long gone and London would perhaps have come to take its place!
Land Mass. We don’t need the impact of an asteroid to realise the doomsday scenario. A model has been proposed which is very persuasive and the maths was apparently verified by Albert Einstein, no less. It goes like this. Accretion of ice mass by condensation and precipitation on the polar caps (260 cubic miles pa?) creates an increasingly powerful restoring couple which tries to ‘straighten up’ the planet from it’s inclined poles. The model wouldn’t have taken account of the observation that mass is being lost to the arctic (‘slush at the North Pole’ and Greenland icebergs breaking off) at the same time - this must make the situation less predictable and probably more unstable. The viscous magma layer below us starts to slide taking everything above, plate tectonics and all, through about 300 of rotation , plunging the icecaps into temperate zones and other places at the poles (maybe England). The predicted outcome would be 8000 years of chaos and sea levels rising up to 130m. About the only safe place on the planet would be Macchu Picchu! This model has the additional appeal that according to the geologists’ dictum that ‘the secret of the past lies in the present’, we do not have to invoke a series of ice ages - implying fluctuations in the solar output which have not been observed - the ice age is a constant facet of the planetary geology, it is just different locations which pass through cyclic extremes of climate.
So whilst the truth is hopefully at the lower end of this range of scenarios, as some kind of ominous portent, there is a band of modern sea shells, said to date from the last ice age, i.e. about 8,000 years ago at about the same time as Britain separated from Europe, in Maryon Park, Charlton. It is about 25m above the present river level!
By Prof. Sharu S. Rangnekar, Rangnekar & Associates, Mumbai.
The First Millennium
The division of time is always somewhat arbitrary. However, it is useful to analyse events in time-periods. By the beginning of the first millennium, the historical details start becoming available. Prior to that millennium, there were four civilisations dominating politically and philosophically: Roman, Egyptian, Chinese and Indian. The territories covered by the political domination kept shifting. In fact, in all cases, the basic domination was in the main towns of the empire and vast hinterlands were not affected by the political and philosophical conflicts - except in the case of actual war.
In the first millennium, the traditional Egyptian and Roman civilisations were overtaken by the forces of Christianity and Islam in Europe and Western Asia. In India and China, a challenge came through Buddhism and Jainism. However, in India, Hinduism prevailed by virtually absorbing these philosophies. Making Buddha the ninth avatar of Vishnu was a clever strategy -- so that Buddhism which originated in India was left with very little influence in the Indian subcontinent. Buddhism going into China became an amalgam of the traditional philosophies like Confucianism and Taoism without any direct conflict. However, in Europe and Western Asia, the conflict between Christianity and Islam was significant. By 650 AD, Islam had taken over the pagans in the Middle East and Christianity had taken the barbarians in Europe. The Jews were persecuted by both and remained on the defensive till the end of the Second Millennium.
The Second Millennium
The second millennium marks the continual battle between Christianity and Islam. It also marks the entry of Islam in India - and its ultimate domination through the Mughal Empire. Here again, it was confronted by the Western Nations - particularly the British who took over the political power.
The crusades dominated the first part of the Second Millennium and left Europe and Western Asia divided between Christianity and Islam. However, it was an uneasy truce and conflicts continued through the Second Millennium - till Christians exploiting the new technology gained dominance. The industrial revolution which started in the West gave Christianity a tool for them to dominate the world for the rest of the Millennium.
The industrial revolution converted the human being from a social creature to an economic creature. Thereafter, the main struggle was between capitalism and communism -- at philosophical level for over a hundred years and at political level for about seventy years. However, by the end of the second millennium capitalism has prevailed, perhaps, because of the following factors:
Capitalism proved a flexible philosophy, which countered some of its deficiencies by accepting "welfare state".
Capitalism ultimately sided with democracy while communalism got equated with totalitarian regimes. Since the human thinking became increasingly equality-oriented, the communism was at a disadvantage in the conflict.
Over a period, the atmosphere of entrepreneurship in capitalism created greater productivity, quality and innovation -- thus leading to economic development and a distinctly superior standard of living for most people.
The second millennium also decided the male versus female conflict. In the pre-historic times, the tribes were probably maternalistic. However, the initial human civilisations requiring muscle power in hunting, cultivating and fighting gave the males an advantage. With the first industrial revolution creating mechanisation and the second industrial revolution creating automation, the advantage of muscle power was totally lost. This created a resurgent female movement demanding equality which could not be put down.
Thus, as we enter the third millennium, the success of capitalism with democracy and gender equality is assured. Any stray pockets of resistance will be knocked out within the first few decades of the third millennium.
The Third Millennium
In the First millennium, thanks to the continual military conflicts the best talents were attracted by the military. In the Second Millennium, administrative requirement of large empires attracted talents to administrative bureaucracy. In the Third Millennium, the managerial contribution is likely to be recognised as paramount since industry and business (agriculture has also become an industry) would be the key factors for the economic man. The best talents are likely to give preference to managerial activities with a decline in the following competitive channels:
Military: With USA emerging as the single dominant military power and United Nations playing increasing role in global policing, the concept of national army is becoming obsolete. By the end of the second millennium, the armies in most nations are not being used against other nations, but against the people within the nations. A special brand of police can carry out the function more economically -- and perhaps more efficiently. Such a super police force backed by an air wing would suffice -- making the rest of the military superfluous.
Bureaucracy: Administrative bureaucracy played a major role at various times. The Turks and the Chinese originated their patterns and all others emulated the patterns. When the European nations became colonial and had to administer colonies overseas, they created their own administrative bureaucracy. The new nations emerging after the Second World War and wanting rapid economic development also resorted to expanding administrative bureaucracy -- for instituting and operating development projects. By the end of the second millennium, the failure of bureaucracy in this area has become evident and all the nations are moving away from welfare and development through administrative bureaucracy -- shifting it to management from private sector and non-government organisations. This means that bureaucracy is being trimmed down and will be ultimately left to bare administration of government. This obviously reduces the attractiveness of the bureaucratic services and the talents in the society are moving away from bureaucracy towards management.
Professionals: Professionals like doctors, surgeons, architects, etc., have started realising management as the basic input in building a successful venture. So management is becoming an integral part of all professional curricula.
Thus we are approaching a millennium in which a visible government will have decreasing importance and the job of running the world will slip away from obstructive politicians and inefficient bureaucrats and will be taken over by men trained in management.
Challenges of the Third Millennium
This expanded role will require the managers to face the following challenges directly:
Problem of the Proletariats: A society is always ruled by a "dominant minority" and the management group will be the dominant minority when they take up the job of running the world. This involves dealing with a large group of proletariats defined as people who are "in" the society, but are not "of" the society in terms of benefiting by the economic development of the society. Typical cases are the aboriginals, landless labour and, till recent times, the women. To bring them within the "benefit area" through socio-economic process is a challenge for the management group.
Problem of Ethnic Conflicts: Due to technological impact, the world is shrinking and the traditional ethnic groups based on caste, community, language, state, religion, nation, etc., have ceased to have a meaning. However, human memories do not fade as fast as the technology changes and this will mean a special effort has to be made to de-emphasise history to concentrate on the future. What happened in the past conflicts has no significance compared to what can happen in the future by collaboration.
These are indeed formidable challenges and the future of the managerial class depends on its ability to deal with them successfully.
