Highs and Lows in February
The general elections (February 18, 2008) in Pakistan marked an important water-shed. Religious and fundamentalist parties have been largely wiped off. There was a change-over in Cuba after 49 years’ rule by Fidel Castro. Hamza, the youngest son of al Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden, is being groomed as his successor. While security analysts are seriously seized with nuclear threat from the terrorists, a nuclear scientist in Pakistan has been abducted. Serious undersea disruption in cable operations in the Persian Gulf badly affected internet connections all over. Maoist extremists in India struck a very serious blow against state power when they launched an attack on police armouries in Nayangarh town in the state of Orissa. Areas like Mauritania, East Timor and Morocco came under the scanner of the terrorists. The authorities in Germany expressed serious apprehension about attack from radical Islamist groups. Spain also sounded Pak terrorist alert. Female fidayeens virtually dominated suicide attacks in Iraq and Srilanka. Al Qaeda in Iraq came to notice for recruiting young boys to their cadres. While Pakistan was entering into negotiations with Taliban, there was report of the presence of 600 suicide bombers in Karachi. Traces of Islamist terrorism were reported in Goa. Terrorist training camp has been unearthed in the southern State of Karnataka. Security authorities detected plans to build mosques and madrasas along Indo-Nepal border to facilitate and enforce a Taliban-type system. Special security battalions were raised in Assam. The existing ban has been reimposed on the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) for two years. The Border Security Force (BSF) in India has decided to recruit women to guard borders.
Japan is on the brink of flying a “paper plane” and there are now distinct possibilities of “arms race” by robots. The British Council has allotted a budget of 6 million pounds for linking British Schools with Madrasas. The Darul-Uloom Seminary in Deoband (India) has issued a fatwa declaring terrorist activities as anti-Islamic. While you can measure long and short of it in human beings (7’ 9” as the tallest and 2’ 5” as the smallest), scientists have also actually started measuring “laughter”. The world’s most accurate atomic clock has been developed in the US. Dogs have displayed power to detect dangerous diseases. The German authorities have started training their dogs how to wear shoes. You can now fill in petrol while sitting in your car, and refrigerators in future will run on heat and not on electricity. You have to check twice how safe is your information. Techniques have been developed to steal encrypted information stored on computer hard disks after the machine has been switched off. You can read all these and more, as usual, in the General Information File.
We will also like to share with the readers the views expressed on two very significant aspects:
- The Situation in Afghanistan.
- The Naxalite Situation in India.
D. C. Nath, IPS (Retd.)
Former Special Director, IB (MHA), Govt. of India,
Executive President & CEO,
International Institute of Security and Safety Management,
New Delhi, India.
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That Other War – The Situation in Afghanistan is cause for alarm
Even as things unravel at an alarming pace in Afghanistan, NATO defence ministers who met earlier this week in Lithuania are trying hard to present a picture of solidarity. This after US defence Secretary Robert Gates kicked up a row recently by asking Germany and other European allies to send more troops to counter the growing Taliban insurgency in the southern part of the war-ravaged country.
Germany is in no mood to send more troops. Any further troop deployment will have to be passed through a reluctant German parliament. However, it is sending a 200-strong rapid reaction force to northern Afghanistan to replace Norwegian troops. That’s not going to be enough. The US-based Afghanistan Study Group has warned that the progress made since the end of the Taliban regime is under serious threat - thanks to resurgent violence and weakening international resolve. The Atlantic Council of the United States, a think tank, is more blunt. Its report says: “Make no mistake, NATO is not winning in Afghanistan”. Apart from the surge in violence and the Taliban tightening its grasp over the southern parts of the country, there is the problem of illegal opium trade.
It is in this context that US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and British foreign secretary David Miliband made an unannounced visit this week to assess the situation in Afghanistan and discuss the international community’s concern with President Hamid Karzai. Rice too called for greater troop commitments from NATO nor Afghanistan could afford to lose. It is a battle the world cannot afford to lose given the fact that Afghanistan is a haven for those who export terror globally.
If only the US had concentrated on Afghanistan, instead of starting an unnecessary and disastrous war in Iraq, things would perhaps not come to such a pass. But the Bush administration chose not to complete the job and went after imagined enemies in Iraq. The result is that the US is now overstretched and is losing the plot in both countries. It is only fair that the US, instead of questioning the commitment of allies, understands that losing complete control of the country has serious repercussions for the rest of the world. India, particularly, has cause for worry. The return of the Taliban would translate into an even more unstable Pakistan and that’s worrying.
The Times of India – February 9, 2009
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A way but no will
In the continuing asymmetrical war – of intent, purpose and result – between the Indian State and Naxal terrorists, Orissa finds itself as the latest victim. A ‘full-scale’ operation has been launched in retaliation of the successful Maoist raid on police establishments in Nayagarh district on Saturday. State authorities claimed on Sunday that 20 Maoists had been killed in the exercise. While one is not in a position to doubt the veracity of the success of the encounter-operation – the bodies of the slain terrorists were reportedly taken away by the Maoists – one is in a position to judge how serious the government and the Centre have been in fighting this menace. According to a Home Ministry report, posts have been lying vacant in the Orissa Police forces. Orissa had 10,839 armed police personnel, instead of the 14,891 that should be there. In terms of the number of police for every 10,000 residents, the ratio is below the national average of 122, and abysmally lower than the UN-recommended ‘peacetime norm’ of 222 policemen per 100,000 people.
The Naxal situation is worst in Chhattisgarh, followed by Jharkhand. But in these two states too, one finds gaping holes in terms of police recruitment. In the face of such asymmetry, is it such a surprise that Maoist violence has little chance of being stubbed out or even challenged? The earlier problem of states and regions not sharing forces and intelligence may have improved. But what use is the semblance of unity against terrorism if there are simply not enough hands on the ground?
Add the Keystone Cops nature of the way the State conducts its ‘anti-Naxal’ operation to the statement of Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil after the Nayagarh episode – “It is very difficult to provide security to every individual and house. It is necessary that individuals take some steps to protect themselves….” – and we realise the magnitude of the disaster brewing. Mr. Patil has, for all purposes washed his hands of his ‘day job’. The irony is that Indians across large swathes of the country – in Jhakhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal – are indeed taking “some steps to protect themselves” against Naxals. Unfortunately, with little to choose from, these protective steps are to ‘sympathise’ with the Maoists. For the State seems to be the last entity that can – or is willing – to do that job for them.
Hindustan Times – February 19, 2008.
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